Time has come, today at around 10AM PDT transactions will be enabled. What that means? People – at this point very likely farmers only can send and receive chia (and mojo – a mojo, which is one-trillionth of a chia). That does not mean XCH will be listed on any exchanges today. Chia probably has signed and NDA with exchanges that’s the reason why we haven’t received any official news on what exchanges and when XCH will be listed. Binance for example (if you ask me unlikely that XCH will be listed on it day 1) announce new coins/token listing 1 hour before they are available. So far two exchanges mentioned chia but nothing specific:
My suggestion is if you want to buy and want yo buy quickly for whatever reason go and register ahead of time on these two and probably on some other respected exchanges as it usually takes hours to get through as your identity needs to be verified before buying/selling.
What if nobody wants to sell?
Well it’s a free market if somebody is willing to pay X for a chia/mojo and if there is a somebody who is willing to sell for that price, then an order will be issued. Do not recommend anyone doing P2P (you sending to someone directly based on some agreement) rather do it via a trusted 3rd party. Chia the company may lend or give some XCHs to market makers who’s role is to provide liquidity to the market. Meaning they are happy and willing to sell/buy and take the bid/ask diff aka. spread. More on what market maker is here:
Did not really want to get into that. Some people believe the fair price is 10-20$ (potential buyers), while other believe the fair price is 700-2000$ (sellers). I think the truth is probably in between. Those who demand for higher price want to get part of their investment back as they bought hundreds of TiB of storage, CPU and memory, plus there is electricity, support, space if your systems are in a data center. People thinking about higher start price start to talk about the correlation between Bitcoin’s hash rate and its price meaning there must be just as tight correlation between storage space required (difficulty to farm) and XCH price. It was mentioned on the official Keybase chat that to remain competitive you need to invest roughly 100$ / TiB thus it must influence price too. I am not saying they are wrong but you comparing chia to Bitcoin is probably not the best financial reasoning at least today. Bitcoin is well accepted and used by many while chia has just started, but what a start! There is interesting price dynamics here – if the open price is going to be high then people will be incentivized to buy more HW and storage, if price is going to open lower or will be getting lower some people will sell their HW. Interesting things in between when people give up on plotting for themself and offer it as a service.
However as always if you buy securities you most probably willing to pay premium for something that will be available in the future – you believe in the company and their vision so who knows what the price is going to be. As to what the price is really going to start, we will see shortly, IOU price is around 700-1$k my best guess is it’s going to be around 200-500$ but in 2-3 weeks it’s going to decrease a bit and hopefully will increase slowly but gradually as more things created on the network and chia in general gets more widely used and accepted. Let’s see!